BTC Weekly Brief — August 14, 2025

Introduction

In the summer of 2025, the Bitcoin market experienced notable structural changes. The week of August 8–14 was particularly active, characterized by sharp price moves and heightened volatility. Leveraging advanced on-chain blockchain analytics and derivatives market monitoring—combined with ETF capital flow tracking, holder behavior analysis, and sentiment assessment—Turing M identifies the core drivers behind the market during this period and provides a forward-looking outlook.

This report focuses on Bitcoin’s historic breakout above the $123,000 threshold and the accompanying market behavior, offering institutional and retail investors comprehensive data insights and risk assessments.

I. Macro Price Trend Review

Bitcoin maintained strong upward momentum over the week, rising from around $117,486 on August 8 to a closing price of $119,024 on August 14, a weekly gain of roughly 1.31%. The pivotal breakout occurred at 20:00 on August 13, when strong buying interest propelled Bitcoin above the $123,000 mark, briefly touching an all-time high of $123,219—nearly matching the previous peak of $123,180 set on July 14.

This not only set a new historical price record but also signaled the continued strength of bullish forces, with technical and fundamental factors aligning in a clearly positive synergy.

II. On-Chain Data Analysis

1. Holding Cost and Profitability

Glassnode data shows that the average cost basis for short-term holders has risen significantly—exceeding $120,000 and surpassing one standard deviation above the mean—reflecting substantial new capital inflows. Short-term holders are actively participating in this cycle, indicating elevated trading activity and improved investor confidence. Long-term holders, however, still dominate market ownership, with unrealized profits steadily rising and no signs of large-scale profit-taking. Their conviction provides a solid psychological support layer for prices.

2. Transaction Volume and Liquidity

On-chain transaction volume rose sharply this week, with ~33% routed through centralized exchanges, reflecting higher trading activity. Exchange inflows and outflows ranged between $4B and $8B daily, indicating ample liquidity. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges increased ~15%, suggesting fresh fiat capital is ready to enter the market—fuel for further upside. A large portion of these flows headed toward ETFs and institutional custody accounts, reinforcing institutional participation.

3. Active Address Count

Active on-chain Bitcoin addresses fell slightly from 3.52M to 3.51M, but remain near a two-month high. New addresses rose for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two-month peak, signaling stronger capital inflow intent and sustained high participation.

4. Market Depth and Order Book

Glassnode’s exchange-tagged data shows a marked improvement in BTC market depth, with large buy orders distributed more evenly and lower slippage—creating favorable conditions for block trades and reducing short-term volatility.

5. On-Chain Anomalies

CoinGlass data indicates a clear trend of net outflows from exchanges, implying low sell pressure as investors prefer holding rather than selling.

III. Derivatives and ETF Market Dynamics

1. ETF Inflows

As of August 14, Bitcoin-related ETFs have maintained elevated cumulative inflows, with net weekly inflows in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Major issuers such as BlackRock and Fidelity continue to hold low average cost bases (~$69,200 and ~$57,400), creating a firm price floor. Rising ETF holdings improve both market liquidity and stability, underscoring institutional conviction in the long-term bullish outlook.

2. Options and Futures Sentiment

In the options market, Glassnode data shows a notable rise in call option demand, with daily premium expenditure trending higher—reflecting bullish price expectations. Open interest (OI) reached a record $43B, with a significant concentration in calls with strike prices above $70,000, signaling expectations for a new upward cycle. In futures, institutional long positions remain dominant, while technical indicators such as RSI stay above 60 and MACD approaches a bullish crossover—pointing to strong short-term momentum.

IV. Technical Indicators

• Support Levels: $119,383 (short-term), $116,700 (secondary), $111,920 (long-term key).
• Resistance Levels: After breaking $123,218, next targets are $128,000 and $130,000+.

V. Market Sentiment & User Behavior

• BTC Dominance fell from 61.8% to 58.9%—largest weekly drop in a month.
• CMC Altcoin Season Index rose from 34 to 40—still in Bitcoin Season territory but signaling mild rotation to altcoins.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 62 to 67—approaching “Extreme Greed” (>75) but not yet overheated.

Investor behavior shows divergence: some capital is rotating into altcoins (ETH, XRP), suggesting higher risk appetite, while net BTC outflows from exchanges and long-term accumulation indicate core investors remain committed to holding BTC. Social media chatter on X shows rising FOMO, boosting daily turnover (~$3.3B).

VI. Risk Monitoring

• Technical Risk: Failure to hold above $123,218 could form a double-top, triggering pullbacks to $119,383 or $111,920.
• Macro/Policy Risk: Uncertainty around US–EU trade talks, cross-border regulation, and “Crypto Week” legislation could induce volatility.
• Sentiment Risk: Profit-taking at highs and concentrated short positions could amplify short-term swings.

VII. Outlook & Strategy

Turing M’s composite on-chain and market analysis suggests Bitcoin is likely to maintain an upward bias in the short term, with August-end targets between $125K and $133.3K. Longer term, institutional accumulation and supply scarcity should support higher valuations—Cathie Wood projects $1M within five years; BitBull sees $150K by Q2 2026. Strategy Recommendations:

• Use on-chain cost structure to time entries; combine with bullish options bias for tactical trades.
• Track stablecoin inflows and ETF positioning to adjust allocations and avoid one-sided risk.
• Maintain strict stop-losses to guard against breakout failures or policy shocks.
• Incorporate social sentiment indicators for short-term timing and stay engaged with community channels.

VIII. Conclusion

This week’s decisive breakout above $123K signals Bitcoin’s entry into a new price discovery phase. On-chain and sentiment data show robust institutional engagement and strong capital inflows, supporting sustained bullish momentum. However, potential risks—especially around technical confirmation and regulatory developments—should not be overlooked. Overall, Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture in its uptrend, and data-driven, risk-conscious participation remains key.

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