Restructuring in the Fragmented Era

Introduction

At the turning point of globalization entering the 'divided era', the U.S. tariff system against China is evolving from 'Section 301' into a multi-layered overlapping mechanism by 2025, fundamentally disrupting cross-border commerce and supply chain dynamics. At the same time, the Web3 ecosystem, represented by blockchain and cryptocurrency technologies, is becoming a new battlefield for companies and capital to seek resilience and opportunities amid turmoil. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis from four dimensions: macro policy, industrial chain reshaping, capital flow, and technological innovation, and propose strategic recommendations for companies and investors.

I. Overlapping Tariff Matrix: The Cost Vortex under Multiple Legal Authorizations

Since the U.S. initiated tariffs under 'Section 301' in 2018, the additional tax burdens imposed on China have long surpassed a single rate of 25% or 7.5%. In early 2025, an additional 20% was imposed based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), followed by another 10% under 'reciprocal tariffs' in April. Coupled with the still-high Section 232 tariffs—25% on steel and aluminum, 50% on copper, and the recently suspended Section 321 'minimum threshold' exemption, which imposed fixed taxes of over 30% on low-priced e-commerce goods—this creates a real tax rate range of 30% to 70%, with some mixed products potentially exceeding 100%. This complexity and opacity are becoming core tactics for the U.S. to apply pressure through multiple bills and various reasons (intellectual property, national security, trade deficits, fentanyl crisis).

II. Global Supply Chain Restructuring: From China +1 to Regional Balance

Under the pressure of high tariffs, companies have no choice but to reshape the global supply chain landscape. Data shows that from 2024 to 2025, the share of supply chains in Vietnam, India, and Mexico will rise from 15%, 10%, and 10% to 20%, 12%, and 12% respectively (Chart 1). While China's share remains the highest, it has dropped from 25% to 20%, reflecting that 'China +1' is no longer an option but has become a business survival strategy.

In this process, companies face not only cost considerations but also hidden compliance and traceability risks. Extended cross-border logistics, complex customs classifications, and cash flow pressures caused by shipping and tariffs are driving more companies to leverage supply chain visualization and smart contract technology to achieve multi-site backup and compliance automation.

III. Capital and Hedging: Web3 as a Financial Refuge

The geopolitical risks of tariff policies affect financial markets, with U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges experiencing a capital outflow of $223 million in early August, closely linked to fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate between 7.18 and 7.20 (Chart 2). Against the backdrop of traditional hedging tools failing or becoming more expensive, stablecoins and mainstream crypto assets have become a 'digital safe haven' for companies and high-net-worth individuals seeking short-term hedging.

Moreover, the application of blockchain in supply chain traceability and cross-border settlement is providing explosive growth opportunities for Web3 enterprises. Smart contracts can embed tax rates and logistics information to achieve automated clearing; NFTs and dedicated wallets are giving rise to the DTC (Direct-to-Crypto) e-commerce model, helping small and medium-sized enterprises in China to directly reach global consumers with cryptocurrencies, bypassing cumbersome processes with traditional banks and customs.

IV. Regulation and Compliance: Opportunities and Challenges in a Tighter Border

In the face of tariff arbitrage and cross-border capital flows, global regulatory bodies have swiftly followed suit. The United States and the European Union are strengthening KYC/AML reviews for cryptocurrency exchanges and plan to include cross-border settlement of stablecoins in the customs declaration system; China is vigorously promoting the digital yuan (e-CNY) in Southeast Asia and Latin America as part of its financial sovereignty strategy, using 'currency diplomacy' to counter the dollar system. This means that Web3 companies must seek compliance arbitrage among multiple national regulations while enhancing technical integration to ensure that capital flows and product compliance go hand in hand.

V. Strategic Recommendations: Resilience and Innovation as Dual Drivers

In-depth supply chain insights and diversified backup

Establish end-to-end visibility covering second and third-tier suppliers, utilizing blockchain technology to trace the origin of core raw materials (such as rare earths and copper) and supply risks, while parallelly deploying production capacity in Vietnam, Mexico, India, and the U.S.

Web3 Settlement Network and Compliance Middleware

Build a multi-chain stablecoin network, deeply integrating with traditional ERP, WMS, and customs automation systems; deploy a smart contract tax engine for dynamic tax rate automatic release and settlement, reducing human error and regulatory risk.

Cryptocurrency Hedging and Currency Strategies

Utilize stablecoins to hedge against RMB volatility while focusing on the application of digital RMB in Southeast Asian markets, laying out e-CNY clearing channels to ensure localized payment and financing convenience.

Regulatory Sandbox and Cross-border Compliance Alliance

Actively participate in multi-country regulatory sandbox pilot programs, collaborating with customs and financial regulatory departments to design a 'crypto compliance middleware' to adapt to the new normal of cross-border e-commerce and capital flow regulations in advance.

Data-Driven Decision Making: Continuous Dynamic Adjustments

It is recommended that companies and investment institutions establish a 'Tariff Impact and Supply Chain Risk Dashboard' based on BI and AI to monitor policy changes, cargo flows, and capital trends in real-time, achieving dynamic adjustments and forward-looking layouts.

Conclusion

The U.S.-China tariff war of 2025 is not just a trade friction; it is a watershed in global economic governance and technological innovation pathways. Only by building resilient supply chains and dynamic compliance systems centered around Web3 and smart contracts can businesses seize the new round of global innovation dividends amid the tides of the divided era.

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